Handtops, UMPC - Flipstart must succeed. - FlipStart, OQO, Sony UX, Handtops

The recent announcement of the specifications for the long anticipated and eagerly awaited Flipstart Handtop computer was met in general with a degree of disappointment.

Based on the published specifications for the unit, it is apparent that the Flipstart will not be competing with the new Model 2 OQO, as almost everyone thought would be the case, but with the (from a performance and specification point of view) much more formidable Sony UX line of computers. This is not good news for the (at present) rather technically under specified Flipstart.

Handtops are categorised primarily by size. There are obviously a number of other important criterion that contribute to the categorisation, but ultimately, they are categorised by size.

The original prototype Flipstart was a much smaller machine than the announced unit. It measured a svelte 149 mm x 101 mm x 25 mm, and the shape of the casing contributed to the illusion of a small sized unit. By contrast, the announced unit measures a significantly larger 149 mm x 114 mm x 41 mm, a huge 85% increase in volume, with the attendant increase in weight as well. The OQO Model 2 measures a slender 142 mm x 84 mm x 25 mm, making the Flipstart a whopping 129% larger by volume than the OQO. Forget about battery sizes etc, these are the measurements of the two units in their standard configurations, and the Flipstart is obviously not in the same category as the OQO when it comes to size.

The Sony UX series of Handtops measure approximately 150 mm x 95 mm x 38 mm, which makes the Flipstart 29% by volume larger than the Sony UX, even if one does not take the shape of the UX into account. The Flipstart is also significantly heavier.

Based on the above, and the current price point of the Flipstart and Sony UX, this puts the Flipstart up against the current undisputed performance and specification champion of the Handtops world.

The Flipstart is going to struggle. While it has a few things going for it, none of them are knock-out blows. In the USA, the home built advantage over the imported from Japan of the Sony might sell a few units, as will the inclusion of EV-DO communications. The clamshell design and the larger screen will also help, as the target market are more used to Laptops than sliders, and the (still to be tested) battery life will also swing a few sales. The LID display and functionality will also bring in some sales, although this might take some time before the effect is apparent.

The biggest thing the Flipstart has going for it at the moment is the ugly styling. The Sony UX is funky. This is not a criticism of the Sony, its a fact. The Flipstart is solid and unimaginative. In the vertical integration market where Vulcan hopes to make its sales, this is actually an advantage.

But here is where Vulcan has a problem. The initial reaction from this segment of the market has been, to say the least, guarded. The vertical integration market caters not to the wiz kids and the young adults on their way up, but to a more mature market who, among other things, do not have teenagers eyes. Although the screen on the Flipstart is bigger than the one on the Sony, the type is still tiny by comparison to the average laptop or cell phone, and this is a problem in this segment of the market. So the question has already been asked by a number of people looking at this segment of the market, “What are they going to use it for?”. And it is here that I believe Flipstart made their biggest mistake.

The Pentium M 1.1 GHz CPU, the 512 MB RAM and the small 30 GB HDD are marginal these days for a handtop used as a second machine, but they come up a bit short if the Flipstart is to be used as a primary machine attached to a desktop screen and keyboard. And a primary machine is what the Flipstart would have to be to really succeed in the target market.

Companies are going to be wary of getting into a situation where they have to buy three devices for each person, a desktop, a handtop and a cell phone. This is particularly so when the handtop is pricey. A more likely scenario would be a small laptop and a cell phone, with maybe a screen and keyboard. Alternatively, a desktop and a WM PDA/Cell phone.

So the Flipstart is going to struggle being up against the Sony UX in the enthusiast Handtop market, and is going to struggle for other reasons in its target vertical integration market.

THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING!

The Handtop market a present needs the Flipstart. While in no way discounting the validity of the various UMPC devices, or being in any way disparaging about them, at present the Handtop market is dominated by two and only two devices, the Sony UX and the OQO Model 2.

Although the Sony UX and the OQO differ markedly in a number of key respects, they are basically similar designs, sliders with thumb keyboards.

This means that the Handtop market is extremely limited for choice at the moment. While there are a number of interesting UMPC's coming out at present or scheduled for the near future, including some with smaller than 7” screens and units with built in keyboards, they are mostly sliders or tablets, and are generally too large to be classified as Handtops. ( I know that this does not apply to the Raon Vega, but it is as yet a limited device more like the OQO Model 1 than the current generation of Handtops) Some interesting concepts have been shown, and the UMPC future is looking better, but the choice of Handtops is still limited, and this might well result in their eventual demise.

The ever present danger to Handtops is the rapid growth of capable Cell phones with PDA and better capabilities that are knocking on the UMPC back door, bypassing the Handtop category entirely. The variety and extent of the offerings in the Handtop category must improve in order to cement the concept of the category in the general public's thinking. As long as Handtops remain a niche market, they will be threatened by and eventually engulfed by cell phones and UMPC's.

In one respect, the Flipstart was a breath of fresh air, and a very welcome addition to the Handtop fold. It is a clamshell design, which offers much needed variety. And it is not a low end inexpensive gadget that is more in line with the PDA market than the Handtop market. Handtop's need the Flipstart, and a whole lot of other devices that explore the boundary's of what is possible in this form factor.

Sony has a history of producing small, powerful Handtop and Handtop like devices. Nobody was surprised when they decided to create the UX line. OQO only produces Handtops, so the Model 2 was a given. A lot of companies with potential handtop products in the future are going to be watching the fate of the Flipstart very closely, as a new entrant into the Handtop market that might give them an indication as to whether this is a worthwhile venture or not. If the Flipstart fails, it might have a disproportionately large effect on the long term viability of Handtops in general.

Firstly, taking the Flipstart out of the Handtop market will reduce the market once more to two similar products. This is not good. It will stifle possible growth and help to restrict Handtops to their current niche.

Secondly, failure would convince many in the vertical integration market that Handtops are not the way to go. This would be a perception that would take a long time to combat, and might close a large portion of that section of the market effectively for the foreseeable future.

Thirdly, sales of clamshell devices will go to other segments of the market, potentially reducing the total market size for Handtops.

And fourthly, other potential players might decide not to produce Handtop devices, and look instead at UMPC's and super cell phones as an alternative.

For these and other reasons, I believe that it is important for the Flipstart to succeed. I am saddened that Vulcan in their wisdom did not see it fit to release the first version of the Flipstart with at least 1024 MB RAM and a 60 GB HDD. That would have kept the Flipstart in the running, despite all the other criticisms, and that could only be good.

For everyone's sake, I hope that Vulcan releases an upgraded model of the Flipstart sooner than later. I wish them luck and good fortune, and hope to see the Flipstart brand going from strength to strength.