Handtops, UMPC - HTC Shift - the Model T?

Every market needs a “Model T Ford” to impart momentum and propel it to critical mass. This is rarely the invention that started the whole thing of, but most usually the mass market unit that is affordable and catches the public's attention and imagination. It is not inconceivable that the HTC Shift is one such product.

Inventions tend to come in clumps. Circumstances often produce a number of different inventions addressing a similar problem all within a short time period. It is axiomatic that things are invented when they are because it is the right time for them to exist. Popularising the concept and changing the idea from an invention to a commodity takes something else entirely, marketing the right product at the right price at the right time, and capturing the public's imagination in the process.

The inventing has been done, Handtops are the result. But as is usually the case, they have yet to become a popular consumer item. For that we will need to look elsewhere.

While the quest for a small, portable computer that is powerful enough to do the same job as a desktop has been on the go since almost the beginning of the PC era, it is only in the last few years that the technology has existed to make this dream a reality. The time is right for creation/invention of hand top computers.

While the quest for a truly portable hand held computer continued, laptop computers and cell phones developed at an incredible pace, becoming commonly accepted and used devices. This has been both good and bad for the hand top computer cause. On the one hand, laptops have cemented the concept of portable computers, and have set the expectation as far as usability and performance are concerned, while cell phones have defined the form factor and to an extent the feature set. On the other hand, this has set the bar for hand top computers very high.

For a hand top computers to be successful, they should have the performance of a laptop, and a form factor not to dissimilar to that of a cell phone, and all this at a price that is affordable to the average consumer. We are still a way from achieving that, but in the last few years, great progress has been made.

I would suggest that the development of the UMPC is as a direct result of the comparative success of units like the OQO and the various Sony hand top computers (Handtops), as well as a few other units. In particular, the OQO and the Sony U and UX series have had an impact disproportionate to their success in the market place. They are devices that came along at the right time, and fired the imagination of people, including some very influential and powerful people who wanted to see the dream turned into a general reality.

The problem with the Sony UX and the OQO is that they are too expensive to push the concept into the main stream. Like the Rolls Royce's of the early days of motoring, they are financially out of reach for the vast majority of people. They exist as a testament to what can be achieved. For motoring to become a widespread utility, it needed a Model T Ford.

It is obvious that what hand top computers need is there own version of the Model T Ford. That was (presumably) the vision behind the UMPC.

The first UMPC's were a notable failure as mass market devices. The big manufacturers who had the means to popularise the form factor made a serious miscalculation regarding price. They also ignored the most obvious lesson of resent computer history, and adopted the tablet form factor, not taking into cognisance the relative failure of the tablet PC. Smaller, less expensive units like the Raon Vega were never widely advertised and marketed in the US and Europe. No Model T in that lot.

But things are changing. Samsung has added a keyboard of sorts to the Q1, and a whole lot of attractive designs are starting to appear. But it is the specialist phone maker HTC that seems to have come up with the UMPC equivalent of the Model T Ford.

The HTC Shift is not going to be the hand top computer for everybody, particularly not for the Handtop enthusiasts who expect better performance, smaller size etc. It is, however, likely to be the unit that appeals to a broad spectrum of people who would not spend the money on a Handtop or one of the existing UMPC's. It has the advantage of looking something like a small laptop. While this might not be the ideal form factor for a hand held computer, it is the form factor that people not familiar with Handtops associate with portable computers.

HTC also have the advantage of being first and foremost a cell phone manufacturer. They understood the importance of communications from the outset. For companies like OQO and Sony, this was a lesson they have had to learn, and are still learning.

HTC will hopefully also bring their expertise in producing sophisticated units at a price to the hand top computer arena. If the price is right, and it is well advertised and marketed, I would imagine that the HTC Shift is going to sell like hotcakes. For the moment, it is the right form factor, the right size, has the right mixture of features, and it has potentially the right price to make a big impact on the market. In short, the HTC Shift seems to have the potential to be the UMPC Model T Ford, the unit that really kick-starts the UMPC market, and helps to grow it to critical mass.

Companies like Intel, with their UMPC reference designs, will benefit from any real success that HTC has with the Shift. The Intel designs are arguably too sophisticated and outside the box to have the kind of impact that a unit like the Shift can have. They will come into their own as the market learns about the hand held computer concept. Once the market reaches a certain size, there will be a synergy between the various designs, and one success will lead to the success of others. Manufacturers are in turn likely to be encouraged by any real success, and this in turn is likely to lead to the production of more and better designs to sell in the expanding market.

Unlike at present, where new designs are fighting for a slice of a limited and slowly growing market, a market that has already seen the success of a “Model T” will grow with each new entry.

In a scenario as described above, Handtops will prosper at the top end of this market. They will probably remain niche market products for the foreseeable future, but the niche will expand as public awareness of the UMPC form factor grows. Eventually, we are likely to see today's Handtop type designs competing head to head with newer UMPC's, and even incorporated into the UMPC fold. Hopefully by that time Handtops will have moved on to better things.

All it takes for the market like the hand top computer market to blossom if for there to be one really successful design that is priced right and catches the public's imagination. Once any market reaches critical mass and has sufficient momentum, it will continue to expand and grow until it reaches maturity. After that point, it takes a revolutionary development to kill that market off (As for example motorcars killed the horse drawn buggy market). I believe that HTC is in the position to produce the product that leads to this flourishing.

For all the pioneering work of OQO and Sony, and all the others who have contributed to the concept, I believe that the HTC Shift may well go down in history as the device that made it all happen.