Handtops, UMPC - FlipStart Future As They State It

FlipStart Future As They State It
handtops.com forums : FlipStart PC : talk about the FlipStart PC

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03/15/08 + cnewtonne

I purchased my FS from Vulcan directly and I was probably the last one who did. I called their support site and asked about the reason behind their sudden price drop. The support person seemed very knowledgeable about the company and product. He stated there is a new FS in the works for which he declined to provide any details. He thought it might be available in 2008. I asked him specifically if the company is going out of business, but he adamantly invalidated the idea. He thought the company is doing good and is here to stay.

This is what he told me, for whatever it is worth.

Thank you

Replies

03/15/08 + wodin

It doesn't make sense that they'd fire sale existing stock at a loss if they were just going to replace it with a new model. The fire sale is so they can close down the division, which must be costing a bundle to keep running.

03/15/08 + diJenerate

wodin said: "It doesn't make sense that they'd fire sale existing stock at a loss if they were just going to replace it with a new model. The fire sale is so they can close down the division, which must be costing a bundle to keep running."

What makes you think that USD699.00 is a loss? How do you know that USD2000.00 wasn't just a price set to make a killing? Look at its hardware.... granted it may be very well constructed so is not really that cheap, but cheap is relative.

As a comparison, the Apple iPhone 16GB cost less than USD60.00 to manufacture and package per unit, which is quite a far cry from its USD499.00 retail price... just a thought.

diJenerate

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03/15/08 + wodin

I think the price break of the OQO Model 01 is an indication of the industry at large. When the model 02 came out the price of the model 01 came in at about half what it had been, not one third.

Kieth? Will your NDA let you discuss this?

03/15/08 + kamodt

I can't speak specifically about FlipStart's issues, but I can talk about the category in general. If you know anything about the cost of hardware components (display, cpu, memory, storage media, wireless, etc.) then you know that no one can make a device with these features and make any money at such a low price-point. When you add a Windows OS license, and other software license fees, there's just no way. Top it off with the fact that none of the UMPC or MID products have sold more than 100k units and most far less than that. The only way to get volume discounts is to commit to huge volumes from the ODMs.

The iPhone pricing is not quite an apples-to-apples (sorry!) comparison because most smartphones can be manufactured for under $100. The hardware costs are considerably lower because the cpu, memory, storage, screen, battery, etc. are much lower. Plus, the volumes for these products are much higher so Apple can negotiate better pricing. Then, they control the software so there are few, if any, license fees. Smartphones that cost $500-$600 are high because they're using premium parts and typically have a software license to cover.

So, making a UMPC that has the performance necessary to run Vista efficiently will cost at least $900 in hardware. Mostly due to low volume purchasing. Tack on the softare license fees and you're up around $1100-$1200. Throw on some WWAN module and the cost is around $1400-$1500. So, after taking distribution margins, support costs, sales and marketing, etc., it's understandable that the retail cost is higher than you would think. Having the power of a mid-size laptop will cost you the same price or possibly more. 12.1" LCDs are much cheaper than 5.6" LCDs.

Sorry for the ramble, but I got tired of people asking me why pricing was so high. Until component costs come down, and the market for these things increases dramatically, the prices for true UMPCs will always be higher. Don't get me started about eePC-like devices!

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03/16/08 + LMc

kamodt: I don't consider your posting a "ramble" as you state; but instead a reaffirmation of the difficulty of creating a hardware breakthrough. I snapped up my FlipStart (feeling a little guilty about someone else's misfortune) because this seemed to a extremely good deal for outstanding hardware.

If you don't mind amusing me, I would be interested in hearing your point of view on the "eePC-like devices."

03/16/08 + kamodt

LMc, ok. Just a few sentences though. Not because I think anyone will care but it might be good to get it off my chest.

My view of the super low-priced sub-notebooks is biased in part because I was responsible for a line of Windows CE devices nicknamed "Jupiter" devices. This was 10 years ago, back when MS was just getting started with embedded devices. We ultimately called these "Windows CE Professional" devices (not my name choice) and I convinced 10 OEMs to build them. My goal was to have PC companion devices with long battery life, instant-on/off, touch-typable keyboards, and decent sized screens (VGA or better then). Primarily for email, you could browse the web, and compose documents, much like you do today with the Pocket Office apps today. The price-point was supposed to be under $800 but for some reason the OEMs decided the price should be $1000 or over.

Ultimately, the decision was made to focus on the threat that Palm was making with the Pilot series and all support for WCE Pros went to enterprise and then died. Interestingly enough, this past year Palm announced the Folio device which was very similar to Jupiter devices. I was both aumused and sad that my concept might actually be taken up by a former competitor. For whatever reason, Palm decided to shelve that product and not release it. Probably, in part, because of the eePC phenomenom.

So, the eePC came about because of the OLPC project which was meant to bring cheap computing to third-world children. Personally, I think most of them need more food and clean water before they need a cute little computer, but that's for a different rant. When OLPC started their "2-for-1" program, many hobbiests snatched them up. Intel and others decided they didn't want to miss out on this new, emerging market, so they've all started building cheap, almost throw-away devices. As I said before, computer components are not typically cheap so the specs for these devices are seriously scaled down. The lowest power CPUs, 4 or 8GBs of storage, cheap displays, etc. combined with asking for huge volume committments are the only way these could be so low-priced.

I find it amusing that people feel they're getting deal because they pay $300 for an eePC and then spend $500 or more in components to mod it out to something worth using. If that's what it takes to be useful, what are those poor kids in third-world countries doing with the basic device? Granted, they're not already spoiled by Pentium-level PCs and even just browsing the web on a slow device may seem like magic to some of them. However, I don't think these will turn them into the next generation of engineers, doctors, lawyers, writers, or teachers. It may inspire some of them to want more education and that's great. For most though, I think it will be a toy or a temporary distraction from their other problems (war, drought, famine, hunger, disease, you name it).

Finally, I wonder where those other cheap laptops will end up. Perhaps it will increase the number of Nigerian 419 emails sent out since Nigeria is one of the countries signed up for 1 million OLPCs. Or, some of them could end up being used to control IEDs of various types. I just don't think they will all end up in children's hands given the fact that we can't even get all of the food, water, and medical supplies to them without it being hijacked.

So, I'm a cynic but I still think the UMPC market has a chance. If everyone believes that they can get what a FlipStart offers for what a eePC costs, then we're in trouble.

Oh, I forgot to say that the Jupiter devices were targeted at the education market too, as there was a need for a small, instant-on, long battery-life device for a reasonable price. There still is and yet we could have had them 10 years ago.

End of rant.

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03/17/08 + LMc

kamodt: much appreciated point of view. Thanks for the background.

03/17/08 + wodin

kambot said: "I find it amusing that people feel they're getting deal because they pay $300 for an eePC and then spend $500 or more in components to mod it out to something worth using."

Yea, I was looking at Cloudbooks and was rapidly coming to the same conclusion, but the same applies to the high end machines. The OQO 02 NEEDS the Executive pack with the docking station and DVD reader. by the time you get it tricked out to be useful your running closer to three grand than two.

Then just for a lark, I checked dynamism and they had FS for $700. I jumped on it, and wish I'd bought two.

03/17/08 + mhoepfin

Interesting, Keith. Apple did the same thing with the Newton device that was a clamshell... I forget the name off the top of my head. I remember the Jupiter devices, and there were many people (mostly writers from what I've seen on the web) that did appreciate the battery life and usefulness.

I think we are getting there.. Look at devices like the HTC Advantage.

Granted, if I'm going to be scaled down to a WM6 device, why not just use a Treo.

It's to the tipping point with the interest that the Eee, Air, x300, that the smaller manufacturers like Flipstart and OQO are going to get rammed by the big boys who have the R&D and economies of scale to produce smaller devices for less.

Oh, and whoever brings back the butterfly keyboard will win the battle. Issues with input are going to be the number one point of resistance for people. Flipstart came pretty close to getting this just right.

03/17/08 + kamodt

mhoepfin,

Yes, the Newton eMate was one of the reasons why I felt the Jupiter devices might succeed. Apple had a reputation for selling a lot of equipment to schools and I felt we could do a little bit better with these devices. One write actually said he preferred traveling with the eMate because of the instant on and long battery-life. If you don't have to do power computing, the embedded software apps work extremely well.

I don't think you can compare the eePC to the Air and x300, other than in size. The Air and x300 are running apps that the eePC will never be able to run and the prices are the same or higher than a FlipStart or OQO would cost. This just illustrates what I was saying about cost vs capabilty. You can build something cheap, but it won't run the apps some people want. Or, you can build something powerful, and it will cost more than some people want to pay. I wouldn't expect the Air or x300 to get below $1,000 for several years and only then because new devices will be even more powerful with a higher price-point.

I agree with you about the butterfly keyboard. I met the man who developed it at IBM Japan and he was sad thta it didn't do better.

BTW, I mispoke about my own product. They were called Handled PC Professional devices, not Windows CE Professional. My bad.

Recent Blog: Some choices

edited: Mar 17 2008 + tnkgrl

In defense of the Asus Eee, about $500 buys you an Asus Eee 701 4G, a Bluetooth 2.0 USB dongle, a 1 GB SoDIMM, and an 8 GB SDHC card!

With very little work, you can mod the Asus Eee for internal Bluetooth...

Then, for $500 you have an ultra-portable laptop about the size of 2 DVD cases, with:
- 900 MHz Celeron M
- 1 GB RAM (and a spare 512 MB SoDIMM)
- Only 12 GB of storage, but flash-based (4 GB built-in for OS, 8 GB SDHC card for data)
- WiFi B/G
- Bluetooth 2.0
- 7" screen (800x480)
- VGA webcam
- Decent keyboard
- Stereo speakers
- 3 USB 2.0 ports
- VGA and Ethernet ports

Compare this with the Flipstart for $700:
- 1.1 GHz Pentium M
- Only 512 MB RAM
- 30 GB of storage, but HD-based
- WiFi B/G
- Bluetooth 2.0
- 5.5" screen (1024x600)
- VGA webcam
- So-so keyboard
- Mono speaker
- 1 USB 2.0 port
- No VGA and Ethernet ports (adapter required)

Now don't get we wrong, the Flipstart is a great deal for $700 - no doubt about it!

But surprisingly, the Asus Eee + upgrades for $500 is quite snappy, well built (better than most laptops/handtops I've taken apart), very resistant to abuse (see video link below), still ultra-portable, and still $200 less.

Video link

Recent Blog: Bluetooth hack for the Asus 701 (Eee)

03/17/08 + mhoepfin

tngrl - Doesn't the screen resolution of the Eeepc kind of kill the experience?

You've pretty much got to have at least 1024x600, even for a web surfing device.

03/17/08 + tnkgrl

@mhoepfin it's not great but manageable... Hey, it's the same resolution as the OQO Model 01/02

Besides, Asus has recently announced the Eee 900 with a 9" screen (1024x600)!

See link

Recent Blog: Bluetooth hack for the Asus 701 (Eee)

03/17/08 + mhoepfin

One thing is for sure.. It's great to have all the choices that are out there now!

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